andrewgodsell

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Archive for the month “March, 2019”

Brexit: Meaningful Votes and Alternative Arrangements

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As I write this, on March 17 2019, the United Kingdom is just 12 days away from possibly leaving the European Union without a deal. This is the default legal position, and a no deal exit will happen unless Parliament agrees a deal, or the government agrees an extension of Article 50 with the EU. I think the other possibility, of revoking Article 50, is very unlikely this week or next week.

There has been much debate among politicians, and pundits, about what might happen. What are the possible alternatives to the deal Theresa May has agreed with the EU, only for it to be overwhelmingly defeated in the House of Commons twice (the margins being 230 votes and 149 votes)? I thought it might be a useful exercise to set out the number of votes gained for the various propositions put to the Commons since the start of 2019. The following list, in descending order of support, features almost all of the motions and amendments voted upon. The three exceptions are the final votes on three separate days, January 29, February 27, and March 13. Each of those votes agreed a motion in which an initial government position had been amended by a previous vote that day. On the first two dates the final motion was carried without a division, while on March 13 there was a division. The relative strengths of support for what was agreed on those days can be consistently gauged by looking at the votes for the individual amendments that were carried.

CARRIED UNANIMOUSLY Citizens’ Rights to be guaranteed (Costa February 27)

520 CARRIED Second Meaningful Vote to be held by March 12, followed by votes to potentially rule out deal and extend Article 50 (Cooper February 27)

412 CARRIED Extend Article 50 to June 30 2019 if Withdrawal Agreement passed by Parliament by March 20, to enable Brexit legislation to be passed. Motion notes that if Withdrawal Agreement not passed by March 20, EU would probably require clear purpose for extension. (May March 14)

318 CARRIED Rule out no deal (Spelman / Dromey January 29)

317 CARRIED Replace Northern Ireland Backstop with unspecified alternative arrangements (Brady January 29)

312 CARRIED Rule out no deal (Cooper March 13)

312 Extend Article 50 for unspecified time, and allow cross-party group of backbenchers to propose alternative plans in House of Commons (Benn March 14)

311 Extend Article 50 to June 30 2019, and allow cross-party group of backbenchers to propose alternative plans in House of Commons (Powell March 14)

306 Second Meaningful Vote to be held by February 27 (Corbyn February 14)

302 Extend Article 50 for unspecified time, and the government should allow time for House of Commons to find a majority for an alternative plan (Corbyn March 14)

301 Alternative options to be voted on by Commons across six days, during February and March (Grieve January 29)

298 Extend Article 50 for up to nine months, to avoid no deal Brexit (Cooper January 29)

296 Rule out no deal, renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement to include a Customs Union and strong relationship with Single Market, with an agreement to be subject to a public vote (Corbyn January 29)

290 Postpone Brexit for unspecified period (Reeves January 29)

288 Rule out no deal (Blackford February 27)

258 Endorse government current strategy of leaving March 29 with or without deal (May February 14)

242 Withdrawal Agreement second meaningful vote (May March 12)

240 Renegotiate the Political Declaration, to include a Customs Union and strong relationship with Single Market (Corbyn February 27)

202 Withdrawal Agreement first meaningful vote (May January 15)

164 Malthouse plan for a managed no deal (Green March 13)

93 Delay Brexit by at least three months (Blackford February 14)

85 Hold a second referendum (Wollaston March 14)

39 Delay Brexit and rule out no deal (Blackford January 29)

 

 

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